Research Articles and Guides
TickerPosts guides and articles tagged research. Plain-English, calm, and written for everyday investors. 26 posts.
Research Paper Proposes an Accounting-Adjusted Way to Read CAPE
A working paper argues that R&D expensing and special items may distort historical CAPE comparisons, and proposes a historically comparable alternative.
· 2 min read
What Does the Shiller CAPE Measure—and What Can It Miss?
CAPE compares prices with a decade of inflation-adjusted earnings. Learn what the ratio can describe and why it cannot time a market decline.
· 2 min read
How R&D Expensing and Special Items Can Change CAPE's Earnings Base
Accounting rules shape reported earnings. See why more R&D spending or repeated special charges can affect a long-run price-earnings comparison.
· 2 min read
CAPE-H Explained: What the Proposed Accounting Adjustments Change
A plain-English guide to CAPE-H, the research measure that adjusts for R&D expense and special items—and to the assumptions it leaves open.
· 2 min read
Can CAPE Forecast Returns Without Timing a Market Crash?
Long-horizon valuation research can describe average return risk without telling investors when a sharp market decline will happen.
· 2 min read
Why Index Weighting Can Change a CAPE Forecast
A recent working paper argues that aggregate CAPE may combine company valuations and market returns using mismatched weights. Here is the proposed Component CAPE idea and its limits.
· 1 min read
Why Interest Rates Are Only One Part of a High CAPE
Interest rates affect how investors value future cash flows, but growth expectations and risk matter too. Learn why CAPE needs economic context.
· 1 min read
Adjusted Earnings: What to Check Before Excluding Special Items
“One-time” charges can repeat. Compare adjusted profit with GAAP results, review the reconciliation and track exclusions across periods.
· 1 min read
CAPE, Accounting and Long-Term Stock Returns: A Plain-English Pillar Guide
A guide to the Shiller CAPE ratio, reported earnings, the proposed CAPE-H adjustment and the limits of long-term return forecasts.
· 2 min read
AI Stocks to Watch: A Valuation Checklist Beyond the Headlines
Research AI stocks through revenue quality, cash generation, dilution and valuation—not just an artificial-intelligence label.
· 2 min read
Nvidia vs AMD Stock: How to Compare Growth, Margins and Valuation
A practical NVDA-versus-AMD research framework covering comparable earnings, customer economics, dilution and downside scenarios.
· 2 min read
AI Data Center Stocks: Orders, Revenue and Free Cash Flow Explained
Learn why large AI infrastructure orders do not immediately become earnings, and how to examine cash conversion and project risk.
· 2 min read
AI Stocks vs Railroad Mania: What the Bubble Comparison Gets Right
A historical framework for separating transformative technology from the price investors pay for it.
· 2 min read
AI Bubble vs Dot-Com Bubble: Why the Railroad Comparison Is Different
Compare infrastructure overbuilding with stock-market overvaluation without treating every technology boom as the same event.
· 2 min read
AI Bubble Risk: Debt, Refinancing and the Railroad Bond Lesson
Why funding schedules can matter as much as long-term AI demand when infrastructure projects depend on outside capital.
· 2 min read
AI Stock Concentration: How to Read the Railroad Comparison Charts
Why market-share-of-value charts need consistent dates, definitions and denominators before they support a bubble argument.
· 2 min read
AI Data Center Bubble: Can Power Shortages Hide Overbuilding?
Explore how local electricity constraints and excess computing capacity can coexist in an AI investment cycle.
· 2 min read
AI Chips vs Railroad Tracks: Depreciation Changes the Bubble Debate
Why asset life, replacement spending and residual value complicate comparisons between AI infrastructure and railway investment.
· 2 min read
The Bull Case Against the AI Bubble Thesis: The Productivity J-Curve
Delayed productivity gains can explain early spending but do not automatically justify every AI-stock valuation.
· 2 min read
AI Picks-and-Shovels Stocks: Are Suppliers Safer in a Bubble?
Chip, memory and equipment suppliers can benefit from construction spending while remaining exposed to their customers' investment cycle.
· 2 min read
AI Bubble Warning Signs: What to Monitor Without Predicting a Crash
A scenario-based framework for tracking weaker demand, financing pressure and changing expectations without inventing a crash date.
· 2 min read
AI Can Change the World and Still Disappoint Investors
Why economic benefits, customer savings and shareholder returns can diverge during a technology investment boom.
· 2 min read
The Complete Guide to Fundamental Stock Research for Beginners
Researching a stock means understanding the business, reading its own filings, and forming a view you can defend, before you act on anyone else’s opinion. This long-form guide pulls the pieces together: what the company does, the numbers that matter, the primary sources, and the bear case, with links to focused guides on each step.
· 3 min read
How to Read an Earnings Report
When a public company reports earnings, three things show up on the same day: a press release, a conference call, and an updated quarterly filing. A plain-English guide to where to find each one for free, which numbers actually move the stock, and the questions worth asking before taking a beat or a miss at face value.
· 10 min read
How to Read SEC Filings Without Getting Lost
A plain-English tour of the four SEC filings beginners hit most often when researching a stock: the 10-K, the 10-Q, the 8-K, and Form 4. What each one contains, where to read it for free, and which sections actually matter.
· 9 min read
How to Research a Stock Before You Buy
A short, plain-English framework for sizing up a stock before you put money behind it. Where to find the primary sources, which numbers actually matter, and how to write down a bear case before clicking buy.
· 7 min read